Introduction & why this data is important
China is the world’s 2nd largest economy, and is also the largest manufacturing economy worldwide.
This means that the health of the China economy is very important to the global economy and many traders and investors constantly look at how China is performing.
China issues their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data once every quarter, and is a very important macro factor monitored by traders.
This means that the health of the China economy is very important to the global economy and many traders and investors constantly look at how China is performing.
China issues their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data once every quarter, and is a very important macro factor monitored by traders.
What Data and when?
The China Gross Domestic Product (Q3) YoY will be announced at 1000 hours (SG time GMT + 8:00) on 18th October 2021.Data Forecast and Expectation
The upcoming China GDP (Q3) YoY is forecast to be 8.1%. The previous reading was 7.9% last quarter.Historical Graph
The China GDP (QoQ) reading peaked in April 2021, and has since been growing at a decreasing trend.
How do we expect Markets to react?
7.9% ≥ Actual GDP
This is perhaps the most feared scenario since the China government has deliberately curbed the economy by imposing many regulatory restrictions. This resulted in a broad based sharp equities market correction.
This scenario may result in a continuation of the market correction/selldown.
This scenario may result in a continuation of the market correction/selldown.
8.1% ≥ Actual GDP ≥ 7.9%
The GDP is expected to be 8.1% although the previous quarter is 7.9%. Therefore if actual results are slightly below expectations but above 7.9%, it may be treated as a slightly negative result.
This scenario may not result in too much repercussion to the China equities market.
This scenario may not result in too much repercussion to the China equities market.
18.3% ≥ Actual GDP ≥ 8.1%
The GDP is expected to be 8.1%. Therefore if actual results are above expectations, it may be treated favourably.
This scenario may result in a bullish China equities market, especially since the Chinese government has been imposing numerous restrictions across the economy which has resulted in significant correction.
Actual GDP ≥ 18.3%
This scenario is the most bullish for the china equities market since it exceeds the common expectation that the China economy GDP growth rate has peaked.
Do note that this scenario is considered highly unlikely as it is not common to exceed expectations by such a wide margin.
Do note that this scenario is considered highly unlikely as it is not common to exceed expectations by such a wide margin.
Please note that all the information contained in this content is intended for illustration and educational purposes only. It does not constitute any financial advice/recommendation to buy/sell any investment products or services.
