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Category: Market Outlook

Market Outlook

[Market Outlook] The US Economy in 2023: Trends, Outlook and Divergence 

In this month’s AlgoMerchant Market Outlook article, we will be sharing several valuable insights with our AlgoMerchant community members through our round-up of key markets in 2023, as well as the economic outlook in the coming weeks and months, including:

1. How have equities, bonds and real estate faired in 2023? What happened to major commodities markets in gold and oil, and what have been the fundamental driving factors for their ups and downs; and what can we expect going into 2024?

2. What conclusions have the financial markets drawn from recent developments in Fed policy? How has this impacted investor behaviour?

3. What is the key source of risk to portfolios next year, even as monetary policy is expected to ease?

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Market Outlook

[Market Outlook] Sharp turnaround in equities fuels animal spirits and a bullish outlook

In this month’s AlgoMerchant Market Outlook article, we will be sharing several valuable insights with our AlgoMerchant community members, relating to the recent surge in US equity markets and the economic outlook in the coming weeks and months:

1. Why and how have equities experienced such a sharp turnaround? What are the fundamental factors driving this rally, and may we expect these to continue?

2. What conclusions can we draw from a technical analysis of US equities? What insights can we draw from historical data?

3. What might we expect from US equities in the coming weeks and months? Could the ongoing bull run be sustained in the longer term?

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Market Outlook

[Market Outlook] Simmering Middle East tensions could lead to a monumental global economic shock

In this month’s AlgoMerchant Market Outlook article, we will be sharing several valuable insights with our AlgoMerchant community members, relating to the sudden onset of the Israel-Palestine War, other players in the Middle East, chiefly Iran, and what this may mean for financial markets, hard assets and global economies over the coming months:

1. Amid the war, what are the ongoing relationships between Israel, Palestine, and other countries in the region such as Iran, Syria, and Lebanon? What is the response of regional organizations including Hamas and Hezbollah? How is the US playing a role in the conflict?

2. Why is Iran key to the global oil trade, and perhaps even to the health of the global economy? What is its relationship to hostilities in Israel and Palestine? Could a fallout reverse much of the progress central bankers have made on inflation?

3. What might we expect from financial assets such as stocks and bonds; from commodities such as oil, natural gas, and gold; and currencies such as the dollar, yen, and Swiss Franc?

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Market Outlook

[Market Outlook] S&P 500 pullback to continue as Governor Powell says inflation “too high”

[𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤] Jerome Powell’s anticipated speech on Friday did not solve the recent conflict. He agrees that inflation is too high, and the Fed is open to raising rates again. The looming risk of recession is still a threat, even if it is less likely to happen tomorrow. But it is most likely to happen, here is why…

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Market Outlook

[Market Outlook] Fed ‘skip’ sets up soft-landing as jobs data exceeds expectations

In this month’s AlgoMerchant market outlook article, we will be sharing several valuable insights, with our AlgoMerchant community members, relating to how the US economy and stock market narrative may evolve in the long term:

1. How was the Fed’s June 2023 decision unique, and what can we expect from the FOMC moving ahead?

2. What does the inflation and labour market picture look like?

3. How might the US dollar respond in the coming months?

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Market Outlook

[Market Outlook] Will the Renminbi replace the USD as the global reserve currency?

In this month’s AlgoMerchant market outlook article, we will be sharing several valuable insights, with our AlgoMerchant community members, relating to how the US economy and stock market narrative may evolve in the long term:

1. What are reserve currencies and how do they earn this status?

2. How has the Ukraine conflict changed the process of de-dollarization? How are economies trying to navigate this new monetary environment?

3. Is China’s RMB in a position to displace the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency? What conditions are enabling this and when might this happen?

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Market Outlook

[Market Outlook] Big money returns to the stock market as banking pressures ease

In this month’s AlgoMerchant market outlook article, we will be sharing several valuable insights, with our AlgoMerchant community members, relating to how the US economy and stock market narrative may evolve in the short to mid-term:

1. What are the key considerations that policymakers will take into account during the upcoming FOMC meeting?

2. What steps did policymakers take to make banks become more secure? Are they immune to contagion?

3. Why do big money funds have improved confidence in the financial system and the stock market?

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Market Outlook

[Market Outlook] Could trouble in the US banking sector force a rate cut?

In this month’s AlgoMerchant market outlook article, we will be sharing several valuable insights, with our AlgoMerchant community members, relating to how the US economy and stock market narrative may evolve in the short to mid-term:

1. What are the key considerations that policymakers will take into account during this week’s FOMC meeting?

2. What are the challenges being faced by the US baking system today, and how have policymakers tried to address these concerns?

3. Which widely-owned asset class shows the potential for downside in the near future?

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Market Outlook

[Market Outlook] A hawkish-cautious Fed navigates between an economic soft landing and a hard crash

In this month’s AlgoMerchant market outlook article, we will be sharing several valuable insights, with our AlgoMerchant community members, relating to how the US economy and stock market narrative may evolve in the short to mid-term:

1. What can we expect from Fed policymakers in the March interest rate decision?

2. Is the US economy likely to enter a recession in 2023? If so, what factors could support a soft landing or tip the scales towards a deeper crash?

3. Has the Federal Reserve put a lid on inflation or could it still rise?

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