journal
The U.S. economy in 2024 is at a pivotal point. While inflation is under control, economic growth is decelerating, shifting the spotlight to the Federal Reserve’s decisions on cutting interest rates. The conclusion of the inverted yield curve could signal the onset of a recession.
The U.S. economy has been facing a challenging environment, characterized by slower job growth, persistent inflation, and fluctuating consumer spending.
Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated he was getting more worried about a weakening job market than about inflation. He has recently signalled a shift in focus towards the labour market
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole summit marked a significant shift in monetary policy. Learn how the market reacted to this policy.
In this month’s AlgoMerchant Market Outlook article, we will be sharing several valuable insights with our AlgoMerchant community members in the run up to the Federal Reserve’s first FOMC meeting of 2024 which is scheduled for next week, including:
1. Why were equities rallying in Q42023? Was this in response to the Fed’s dovishness, and what will the FOMC most likely do in its upcoming meeting?
2. How have fresh data on growth drivers, inflationary stubbornness, and robust jobs figures influenced the Fed’s perspective?
3. What are the key factors impacting the Fed’s decision-making in 2024? What uncertainties can play into this and how might global shipping impact the rate trajectory in 2024?
In this month’s AlgoMerchant Market Outlook article, we will be sharing several valuable insights with our AlgoMerchant community members through our round-up of key markets in 2023, as well as the economic outlook in the coming weeks and months, including:
1. How have equities, bonds and real estate faired in 2023? What happened to major commodities markets in gold and oil, and what have been the fundamental driving factors for their ups and downs; and what can we expect going into 2024?
2. What conclusions have the financial markets drawn from recent developments in Fed policy? How has this impacted investor behaviour?
3. What is the key source of risk to portfolios next year, even as monetary policy is expected to ease?
In this month’s AlgoMerchant Market Outlook article, we will be sharing several valuable insights with our AlgoMerchant community members, relating to the recent surge in US equity markets and the economic outlook in the coming weeks and months:
1. Why and how have equities experienced such a sharp turnaround? What are the fundamental factors driving this rally, and may we expect these to continue?
2. What conclusions can we draw from a technical analysis of US equities? What insights can we draw from historical data?
3. What might we expect from US equities in the coming weeks and months? Could the ongoing bull run be sustained in the longer term?
In this month’s AlgoMerchant Market Outlook article, we will be sharing several valuable insights with our AlgoMerchant community members, relating to the sudden onset of the Israel-Palestine War, other players in the Middle East, chiefly Iran, and what this may mean for financial markets, hard assets and global economies over the coming months:
1. Amid the war, what are the ongoing relationships between Israel, Palestine, and other countries in the region such as Iran, Syria, and Lebanon? What is the response of regional organizations including Hamas and Hezbollah? How is the US playing a role in the conflict?
2. Why is Iran key to the global oil trade, and perhaps even to the health of the global economy? What is its relationship to hostilities in Israel and Palestine? Could a fallout reverse much of the progress central bankers have made on inflation?
3. What might we expect from financial assets such as stocks and bonds; from commodities such as oil, natural gas, and gold; and currencies such as the dollar, yen, and Swiss Franc?
Imagine you are driving down a highway and you see a sign that says “Road ahead closed.” What would you do? You would probably
[𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤] Jerome Powell’s anticipated speech on Friday did not solve the recent conflict. He agrees that inflation is too high, and the Fed is open to raising rates again. The looming risk of recession is still a threat, even if it is less likely to happen tomorrow. But it is most likely to happen, here is why…
Never miss great insights from us! Subscribe to our newsletter.
Never miss great insights from us! Subscribe to our newsletter.