Category: Market Outlook

Investors have been disappointed this year as financial markets have reversed the course after each rally and resumed a painful march downward to new lows. 📉

Overall, market sell‑offs have broadly coincided with the U.S. Federal reserve’s decisions to raise interest rates.

And many believe that a sustainable rally will emerge 📈 once the Fed stops hiking and starts cutting rates, typically known as a Fed pivot.

Currently, the question of a Fed pivot isn’t if; it’s when because the FOMC can’t continue to hike rates indefinitely.

So, when exactly will the Fed pivot? 🤔

Does the ‘fed pivot’ indicate a bullish signal for equity markets?

If so, does history support it, or is it the other way around? 🤷

Let’s find out. 👉

Bear markets are most painful in real-time (rather than in hindsight), and this one hasn’t been an exception. 🐻

What makes this bear even worse is the breadth of negative returns. 🛑

From stocks to bonds, real estate to cryptocurrency, everything seems to be falling apart, and there is nowhere to hide.

Additionally, two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth have sparked a heated debate over whether the U.S. economy is currently in a recession or not. 📉

Well, only time will tell if we indeed hit an official recession.

But if history is any guide, one of the hallmarks of bear markets is that they are sometimes associated with recessions.

And now, with another recession likely on the horizon, it is worth remembering that recessions are an inevitable part of a dynamic economy. And if you’re prepared for the next downturn, there will be plenty of opportunities when it ends. 💰📈

Therefore, the more you know about recessions, the better. Here are the top 7 must-know facts about recessions.

This earnings season, a lot is working against American stocks:

Sky-high inflation, a hawkish Fed, growing recession fears, supply-chain snarls, and slowing consumer demand…

Investors, however, need to factor in a growing threat: A STRONG US DOLLAR!

Since the previous earnings season, companies have been warning about the harmful effects of a strong dollar on their earning potential…

But those concerns have been elevated in recent weeks as the greenback broached significant milestones, such as hitting a new record high of $114.79 for the first time in 20 years!

Part of the reason is that the Federal Reserve has been more hawkish and hiked interest rates to the highest level since 2008 in an effort to quash the steaky inflation.

Given the dollar’s prominence as the global reserve currency…

Its appreciation has far-reaching impacts on the economy and stock markets around the world.

This article delves into the factors behind the dollar’s recent strength, what it means for investors, and what the endgame could be.

Bulls had a ball for 18 months, but when bears scooped in, the S&P 500 went into a tailspin and lost over 24% from its January record highs!

The markets have had a lot to worry about in 2022…

Persistent high inflation, central bank tightening, intensifying fears of a recession, worsening geopolitical crises, high commodity prices, disrupted supply chains, and a stronger dollar — all these have dampened investor sentiment and also enhanced volatility in the markets.

However, these issues seem to be well understood by the markets now…

At the beginning of the year, it was unclear how far inflation would surge and how aggressively central banks would respond.

But now, the core inflation in the US appears to be peaking, and markets are pricing in relatively aggressive tightening paths for most central banks.

Currently, other warning signs of a slowing global economy are popping up…

China’s economic woes continue to mount, showing no sign of abating…The Japanese Yen is depreciating at an unprecedented pace, while Europe’s energy crisis is forcing factories to go dark.

Additionally, developments in geopolitical powderkegs and increasing credit risks have posed new challenges to financial stability.

New macro, market and economic realities have replaced the earlier realities with new and equally troubling ones.

In this post, we will delve into the eight biggest macro trends and risks currently looming over the markets, so you can be better prepared to profit from the potential market drivers!

Talks about the potential recession are getting louder.

More and more analysts are predicting a recession in the US by early 2023.

The expectations of recessions are rising…

But how should investors know whether these gloomy forecasts will prove accurate?

After all, virtually no one predicted the Great Recession.

And on the other hand, as Paul Samuelson joked, the market analysts had predicted nine of the past five recessions.

Well, investors may simply take them on faith.

But a much better idea is to analyze and sift DATA for some clues.

Now, this begs the question: Which data?

After all, there are numerous recession indicators, and selecting the correct one is not an easy task.

However, the most intuitive solution is to evaluate the federal statistical agencies’ monthly measurements of real economic activity.

And the NBER, the official arbitrator of recessions in the United States, evaluates the six prominent data sets from Fred Economic Data to decide whether the US economy is in a recession or not.

And in this informative article, we’ll compare the current state of these six data sets to their performance during previous recessionary periods to determine if we’re in a recession or on the verge of one.

If you’re watching the current state of stock markets and wondering if it’s time to buy back into the market, or wish to short the rebound, take a moment to explore your options.

Shorting on the rebound can lead to unnecessary losses once markets bounce even higher.

Buying on rebound high can also lead to unnecessary losses should the recent markets bounce fail.

Consider these technical analysis of major indices, commodities, and risk assets from our expert analyst to take control of your trading positions when the global economic outlook isn’t so rosy.

Not many people know this, and this is really important. Demand for US treasuries, especially the short (1 year) to mid-term (10 year) treasuries typically spike for 2 main reasons.

First, there is a genuine concern over the financial markets, for example, recessions and market corrections.

Second, the Fed increases the Federal Funds rates aggressively, which drives demand to hold US treasuries.

However, something really weird is happening right now. The Fed is aggressively hiking the Federal Funds Rate, yet the demand to hold US treasuries is low.

What exactly is happening here?

The Federal Reserve is intensifying its fight against inflation…

US Fed Chair Jerome Powell has recently pledged to do “whatever it takes” to curb the four-decade high inflation…

Increasingly, it seems, aggressively rising interest may lead to “the one thing” the Fed has been trying to avoid: a recession!

So, are we heading towards it?

Well, the current macro-economic conditions seem to be pointing in that direction, with many economists arguing that the stock market and US economy will get much worse before they get any better…while Wall Street bulls believe that these fears are overblown…

Additionally, a good argument can also be made on:

How do markets perform just prior to, during, and towards the end of a recession, and how can you safeguard your portfolio?

And this article will help you uncover all these questions…

Last night the US issued a very important economic indicator – the consumer price index (CPI) result which highlights the inflation in the world’s largest economy.

Inflation concerns are front, left, right, and centre in everyone’s mind right now. Therefore, our expert market research team has decided to send out a note to share our views on the matter.

Towards the end of March 2022, something ominous emerged that market commentators and economists had been anticipating for a while. The U.S. yield curve inverted for the first time since 2006!

And the topic of “the yield curve and its inversion” hit the financial world with the same intensity as Will Smith’s smack in the face of Chris Rock.

This coordinated international move has plunged many markets into mayhem, especially the energy market.

Many have started to compare this to the 1970s oil shocks, which resulted in dire economic consequences for the world economy.